Obama Wins

Did I forget to blog this? I doubt anyone reading this blog hasn't seen or heard the news already.

But yes, Barack Obama has just been elected the 44th president of the United States. It still hasn't sunk in. But this is awesome news for the country. Here in Los Angeles people have been honking horns, dancing in the streets, hooting and hollering. A great day to be an American.

John McCain, who I have lambasted for over half a year on this blog, gave a nice concession speech. It would have been easier to call for unity, however, if he hadn't been calling Obama an elitist celebrity socialist pedophile terrorist-sympathizer for the past few months. But I feel bad for the guy. He sold his soul and threw away his honor, and for what? The worst defeat by a Republican in 44 years. Now he gets to lick his wounds and go back to the Senate. But don't feel too bad for him -- he still has 7 houses, $100 million bucks, a comfy job. And unlike Obama, he doesn't have to save the world.

Obama has a major task before him, maybe greater than he knows. It will weigh heavily on him. The years ahead will be filled with great loss and sacrifice. George W. Bush has put us in a very deep ditch, and climbing out will not be quick or easy. But now that we have an intelligent, pragmatic progressive at the helm, we have a fighting chance.

Alaska: The Most Idiotic State In the Nation

Although they have tough competition with the Utah bigots who have blanketed CA airwaves with lies and hate for the past six weeks, Alaskans are on the verge of making themselves look like the biggest idiots in the United States.

Right now, it looks like corrupt crooks Ted Stevens and Don Young may win reelection. I have to say I'm pretty shocked. This goes against all the polling. Either people were lying to pollsters, or Alaska Democrats didn't show up to the polls. It stinks to high heaven.

If Ted Stevens is reelected, Harry Reid and the other Senators will force him to resign or simply expel him. Under Alaskan law, a special election would have to be called for a replacement. Who knows, maybe Sarah Palin would throw her hat into the ring. She'd quickly become the dumbest person in D.C.

If Alaska really does decide to reelect these clowns, I think the only just punishment is to shut off the spigot of pork than has been washing over that state for decades. No more money for bridges, no more money for pipelines, let them pay for that shit themselves. With all the oil profits they are taking in, surely they can afford it. It's time for Alaska to carry its own weight.

GOP Consultants

The GOP consultants on CNN have just argued that Dems need to govern from the center because Republican policies are so popular. Think about that for a minute.

James Carville quickly snuffed out that talk by mentioning that Democrats were on the path to win 14 Senate seats and 55 House seats and possibly the presidency within the course of two years.

Anyone who thinks Democrats should govern as Republican-lite needs to go talk to Max Cleland and Tom Daschle and Harold Ford and see how that worked out.

Ohio

Unless NBC, Fox and ABC are trying to screw with Democrats, it appears that Obama has won Ohio.

If this is real, Obama will be our 44th President.

Still waiting to see if Al Franken can pull out Minnesota, if Begich and Merkley can pull out their Senate seats, and if the right CA propositions pass.

The Nervous Moment

This is the limbo period, during election day but before any results have arrived, where Democrats like myself worry about whether all the polls were simply wrong and McCain/Palin will be leading our country for four years.

Plenty of other blogs have anecdotes of people waiting in line for hours to vote. I have a story too - my girlfriend waited in line here in true blue Hollywood for almost an hour. But what if these lines are filled with secret McCain voters who were missed by the polls? What if a large percentage of Obama voters decide they are too busy, too tired, too engaged with their Xbox games to go vote? What if the nightmare scenario comes true and we see McCain and Palin celebrating with smiles on their faces tonight?

I just can't imagine how depressing tomorrow would be if that is the case. So I'm just trying not to think about it.

Go vote.

Interesting Choice

Obama's final pre-election campaign rally was in Manassas, Virginia last night. Manassas is the site of the First Battle of Bull Run, also known as the First Battle of Manassas. It was the first major land battle of the Civil War.

There were more people at Obama's rally last night (90,000) than fought in that battle (67,500). Of course, the Second Battle of Bull Run, which pitted Robert E. Lee against Stonewall Jackson, had even more -- 112,000.

Vote, Mothafucka, Vote

Today is Election Day.

V-O-T-E.

Because remember, if you don't vote, you don't get to complain afterwards.

The Precipice of History

Tonight is election eve, what Andrew Sullivan is calling the "calm before the storm". Tomorrow history will be made, one way or another. Either we will see the election of the first African-American president, the first president from Hawaii, or we will see the oldest first term president in history, as well as the first female vice president.

This has been, without a doubt, the most amazing presidential campaign of my lifetime. I work in the movie business, I've read a lot of screenplays and novels, and the 2008 election has more drama than 99% of them. It is truly an epic election. Of course, it needs to come home with a happy ending, which means the election of Barack Obama. If McCain wins, the story is spoiled by the sort of sad, depressing ending that is typically found in forgettable art house pictures or box office bombs like "The Mist".

Since I've read both of Barack Obama's books and have followed politics rather closely since about 1992, I'm well aware of the lengthy prologue to this election. The rise and fall of Bill Clinton. The rise and fall of the Republican Congress. The stealing of the 2000 election by Bush and his cronies, followed by eight years of corruption, mismanagement, partisan thuggery, incompetence and war crimes. I watched Obama's 2004 convention speech live, I blogged the 2004 election at Daily Kos, and of course we all felt that heavy blow when Bush somehow, someway won that election against a clearly superior opponent. The country was immediately disillusioned with its choice. Once the Swift Boat ads were off the air, once the spinmeisters had gone home, people were left with President George W. Bush and realized they'd been swindled. His approval ratings fell under 50% almost from the day he took the oath a second time, and they haven't recovered since. The epic failure of the Republican party led to the Democratic party's landslide victories in 2006.

And then...2008. Good God this has been a long, grueling, amazing, unforgettable race. From the Iowa upsets by Obama and Huckabee, to the McCain resurgence and the Romney flame-out, to the endless Obama-Clinton war with its neverending drama, of which the highlight was clearly the Rev. Wright episode and Obama's historic speech on race relations, it was a primary season for the ages. Obama vs. Clinton was truly a battle of the titans, a clash for the heart and future of the Democratic party. The better person won, the better campaign won, but I have to give Hillary some credit -- she proved herself a fighter and she made Obama a stronger candidate in the process.

The general election campaign started way back in June, with McCain's green-screen fiasco and Obama's "fist jab" celebration in St. Paul. Compared to the Obama-Hillary race, this was like watching Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd. One candidate is cool, collected, one step ahead of the game. The other is a befuddled old bald guy who can't shoot straight and makes gaffes every time he opens his mouth. Obama went on a grand tour of the war zones and Europe, while McCain rode in a golf cart with Poppy Bush and knocked over apple sauce in a grocery store.

In August things got even better. Obama chilled out in Hawaii and picked Joe Biden after an extensive vetting process, while McCain basically put off any deliberations until the last minute. Obama had an extremely successful convention highlighted by Hillary, Bill, Michelle and himself, while McCain was in Arizona meeting his surprise VP for only the second time in his whole life. Sarah Palin. Jesus I still can't believe he really picked her. What a gift she's been to Obama, without Obama even having to attack her. Palin is dumber than Bush, more confident than Bush, and even more vicious than Bush. She's a dream come true for the rabid social conservatives, and a nightmare for anyone with a brain. McCain may have lost the election with the pick of Palin -- we'll see tomorrow.

And since Labor Day, well, it's been quite a ride. A huge financial meltdown followed by the duel meltdowns of Palin (w/ Katie Couric) and McCain (w/ David Letterman and the suspension of his campaign). Obama suddenly looked like the steady hand, whereas McCain and Palin looked like Amateur Hour. It was really pathetic and sad to see, but also wonderful for those tired of the McCain campaign's petty distractions. Suddenly the election was about real issues, it was about Bush's legacy, it was about "What the fuck do we do now?"

Three presidential debates, with McCain looking progressively angrier and older in each one, while Palin tried but failed to overcome the damage wrought to her image by Tina Fey and Katie Couric. McCain and Palin have continued to campaign, they've trotted out Joe the Republican Asshole, but they've been the walking dead for about a month now.

Perhaps tomorrow will bring a miracle for the Republicans and a crushing blow to Democrats, but I don't think so. That would be the biggest upset in at least 100 years, and an epic failure by every polling organization in existence. The next 30 hours will be some of the most exciting of the year, perhaps the decade. Grab the popcorn and hope for a happy ending.

McCain on TV

Is it just me, or does he sound really tired and sick these days? He doesn't sound healthy, that's for sure.

Prediction Time

The election is tomorrow, so make sure you get out there and VOTE. I don't care where you live, who you are voting for, or whether the election is called before you make it to your polling place. It doesn't matter. Just get down there and vote.

If you've already voted, like me, then make a difference by doing some GOTV work.

First I'd like to warm you guys up with my single favorite video of the entire campaign. There have been a lot of great videos, but this is still my favorite:



Everything you need to know about why John McCain would be a disastrous pick for president is in that video.

Now, it's time for predictions. I'm terrible at predictions because I'm one-half cautious and superstitious, and I'm one-half unrealistically optimistic and hopeful. So while half of me thinks McCain could still eek out a tiny victory tomorrow and crush the hearts of the world, my other half just won't believe that this could happen two presidential elections in a row. After Bush barely squeaked by in 2004, I just won't let myself belief that the GOP could do it again after all the country has gone through.

On top of which, Obama is a damn fine candidate who has run a nearly flawless campaign.

So here are my predictions. The state map will look something like this:


As you can see, I was pretty generous to Obama in this map. I gave him all the states in which he is ahead in the polls, as well as Montana -- where he is tied. The only other states that he could plausibly win are North Dakota, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana, but I think those will all fall to McCain. The map I've posted would be incredibly awesome if it came to fruition, but I would be delighted with just 270 electoral votes as well.

In the Senate, I see the Democrats picking up eight seats to bring them to 59 in the Senate. Either Al Franken or Jim Martin will lose, which is a shame because I really like both of them. The seats in VA, NM, CO, AK, OR, NC, and NH should be pickups for the Dems, barring any major polling errors.

In the House, I really don't have a clue how things will go down. So I'll just be optimistic and say the Democrats will win 26 seats, putting us as 262-173.

I've pulled all of these predictions out of you-know-where, so don't bet any money on them. I have no interest in predicting the California ballot initiatives, because it just makes me sick to think that 1A could fail or that 4 or 8 could pass. I do think that if 8 passes, it will be overturned within two years.

(BTW - I've knocked on wood seven times with each hand so as to reverse any possible jinxes that could be caused by this post. Second of all, I made no predictions before the 2000 election and we lost anyway, so what the hell)

Obama Remarks On His Grandmother

This is probably more raw emotion than I've ever seen from Obama. I just can't imagine how hard it must be to continue campaigning with the loss he has just endured. It's literally like losing his last parent:

Madelyn Dunham (1922-2008)

Barack Obama's grandmother Madelyn Dunham died this morning at the age of 86.

This is a terrible loss for Obama, and my thoughts go out to his family. It is quite fortunate that he was able to visit her last week and say his goodbyes. "Toot", as he calls her, lived a long and full life in which her daughter became a respected anthropologist and her grandson became a viable candidate for President of the United States. Barack and his sister released this joint statement:

It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer. She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances.

She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure.

Our family wants to thank all of those who sent flowers, cards, well-wishes, and prayers during this difficult time. It brought our grandmother and us great comfort. Our grandmother was a private woman, and we will respect her wish for a small private ceremony to be held at a later date.

You can see and hear Obama's grandmother briefly in this TV ad from earlier this year:



It's a shame that she didn't live to see what happens tomorrow, but maybe in her heart she already knew the outcome. I guess it's our job to make sure the outcome is a good one.