Debates, Taxes, Deficits

I know some TV pundits really wanted to give John McCain a win at Wednesday's debate, just because he tried harder this time and because it's unfair to have their favorite U.S. Senator go 0-3 in presidential debates against some upstart freshman Senator. But too bad. Obama was just as cool and collected as always, while McCain was angry, seething, old, grouchy.

Obama's answers made sense. McCain rambled, he threw punches that didn't land, he annoyed the hell out of me with that stuff about Joe the Unlicensed Tax-Cheating Republican Plumber. I know Republicans are all in a tizzy about "sharing the wealth", but where I come from that's actually a good thing. When you are playing with your friends as a kid, and one kid scores a bunch of candy, you tell him to "share the wealth". Anyone who refuses is a greedy prick, which I guess is a good enough characterization of McCain and today's Republican party.

Since 1980, Republicans have believed that the wealthy should keep their wealth, and in doing so they will make smart and benevolent decisions about how to use that wealth to create jobs and increase growth. Unfortunately, it hasn't turned out that way. The rich get richer, job growth (at least under Bush) has been close to non-existent, and wages for the middle class have flatlined. The wealthy received huge tax cuts in the hopes that they would create jobs and trickle down prosperity. But they haven't fulfilled their end of the bargain, so it is time to go in a new direction. It's time to raise taxes on the rich and use that money to actually create jobs - preferably through railroad construction, infrastructure, and green jobs.

I'm actually to the left of Obama when it comes to his middle class tax cut. I don't think we should be cutting taxes for anybody right now, not with a $10 trillion debt and a $500 billion deficit every year. I'm middle class and my tax burden really isn't all that outrageous (although I somehow pay a higher percentage than Sarah and Todd Palin, but that's another story). I think the priority of the next administration should be raising taxes on the wealthy, and particularly the super-wealthy who have made out like bandits. Raise the estate tax to 90% for estates over $10 million - let the dead pay more taxes.

But of course, the responsibility should go both ways. Just as the government could increase revenues from the wealthy, they must also be wiser about spending tax dollars. This is something Clinton and Gore did for eight years, streamlining government and keeping defense spending flat. That's how they managed to engineer a surplus. I think Obama should borrow McCain's hatchet and take it to the defense budget, root out fraud in Medicare and Social Security, and go after all the private contractors (military and otherwise) who have been fleecing taxpayers for years. Oh, and fully fund the IRS to get those wealthy tax cheats.

Not sure how I got off on this tax policy tangent, but let me get back to the debate. McCain did himself some good by mainstreaming the Bill Ayers crap, putting it into the conversation, but he also undermined himself by appearing angry and unsteady. It was very much Bob Dole circa 1996. Americans want to like their president and McCain simply doesn't pass that test.

I don't think the debate was a game-changer for either candidate, and so going forward the race will either stabilize or tighten up slightly barring any unforeseen October surprises.

McCain Hasn't Hit Bottom

When John McCain was down ten points in the Gallup Daily Tracking poll last week, I figured he had hit rock bottom. The financial meltdown, combined with John McCain's unprofessional and embarrassing reaction to it, pushed a lot of folks towards Obama. The Sarah Palin meltdown during the Katie Couric interviews didn't help either. In fact, I'm guessing that Sarah Palin is solely responsible for half of McCain's current deficit in the polls.

Normally a VP pick doesn't make a difference. But when you are a 72 year old cancer survivor and your VP can't answer a single softball question from Katie Couric without looking like a blithering idiot, it does make a difference.

But I still thought McCain couldn't drop any further. In polling, numbers almost always overshoot on the upside and downside during eventful periods. You see it in the bounces after the conventions, where both Obama and McCain saw their numbers reach all-time highs before coming back to Earth. And this election has been too tight for too long for me to really believe that Obama could open it up and keep it open for much longer.

But I was wrong. Yesterday, John McCain claimed that he has Obama "right where we want him". But there are no signs of a McCain comeback in the works. It's analagous to the Wicked Witch of the West claiming she has Dorothy "right where she wants her" even as the Wicked Witch melts in a puddle of water.

CBS/NY Times:
Obama: 53%
McCain: 39%

LA Times:
Obama: 50%
McCain: 41%

Newsweek:
Obama: 52%
McCain: 41%

USA Today/Gallup:
Obama: 52%
McCain: 45%

ABC/WaPo:
Obama: 53%
McCain: 43%

According to Pollster, we've seen 24 polls since October 1st in which Barack Obama is at or above 50% in the polls. During that same time, John McCain has failed to climb above 45%. This is NOT excellent news for John McCain.

Looking ahead, it is simply impossible to predict where the numbers will go from here. I'm guessing that the CBS/NY Times poll, which shows Obama up by 14%, will probably be his high mark of the campaign. The numbers will have to tighten up from here -- right? But with 90% of the country thinking we are on the wrong track, and with 73% disapproving of Bush's performance, Obama still has room to grow. These anti-Bush, pro-McCain voters are fertile ground.

But what makes prediction impossible at this point is the unpredictability of the McCain campaign. Who would have guessed that John McCain would suspend his campaign and threaten to cancel the first debate? Who would have known that the Ayers attacks would backfire so strongly? And in McCain's favor, who would have predicted that the mainstream media would simply yawn when the Troopergate report found that Sarah Palin had abused power and violated state ethics law?

For all we know, John McCain has another few embarrassing stunts left in him. Maybe he will make a speech denouncing George W. Bush, maybe he will demand more debates, maybe he will go back on his word and unleash some Rev. Wright commercials. Or maybe I'm not thinking big enough. Nobody knows the mind of John McCain, not even John McCain.

Whatever happens, McCain's chances are increasingly thin. We have 22 days to go, he's down by about 8 points in most polls, and people are desperate to kick the Republicans out of power. McCain can do better at tomorrow night's debate, but short of an Obama meltdown it won't change many minds. People are looking for a reason to vote for Obama, so he simply has to come across as plausible. McCain is the one who seems increasingly implausible at this point.

Mr. November

Because he won't fuck us over.

Look Who's Talking

Why is the media not calling her out on this obvious hypocrisy? I mean really:



Are they worried about being too mean to her? Sarah Palin is the Barracuda, she has no second thoughts when it comes to slamming Obama in the worst ways, so WTF?

Are they worried about being sexist? Then just have honest female reporters write up the stories if that's the case. Of course, that's sexist towards male reporters, who should have free reign to call out lying politicians no matter their gender. But for goodness sake, someone needs to make a big deal out of this.

Or are they worried about looking like they have pro-Obama bias? After all, you don't want McCain's campaign to diss you the way they dissed the NY Times a few weeks ago. Give me a break. The press is supposed to speak truth to power, and it's hard to come up with a situation where that is more necessary than a presidential election.

Where is Katie Couric when we need her?

If Joe Biden Had Abused Power...

It would probably go something like this:

An official investigation has concluded that indeed, Joe Biden did illegally abuse his power as a United States Senator to have his brother's ex-wife fired from her position in the Justice Department.

Biden is expected to step down immediately and a new choice for Obama's VP will commence immmediately.

The media firestorm is in its predictable full-swing. The scandal is the top news story on every news site in America, with every pundit is predicting the end of Obama's campaign, as this proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that his judgment is seriously, perhaps fatally, flawed.

Obama scheduled a news conference for 6 p.m. this evening in a desperate attempt at damage control.

But instead we live in a country where the media, for various reasons, employs a horrible double-standard when it comes to Republicans and Democrats. Sarah Palin abuses power, and the big media pundits barely give it a mention. In fact, I didn't see it discussed on any of the Sunday morning talk shows.

Sarah Palin's husband is a member of an extremist anti-American secessionist organization with ties to Iran? A total non-story.

Barack Obama's former pastor once said we should "damn America" for not treating African-Americans and Native Americans properly? Months of saturation coverage and demands for an explanation.

John McCain goes on a radio show (and accepts $5000 in campaign contributions) from a convicted felon who planned murders and kidnappings, advocated the killing of Federal agents and expressed admiration for Adolf Hitler? Not a peep from the media.

Barack Obama once served on a bipartisan education reform board with a 1960s Vietnam War protestor? A big deal, two weeks of coverage.

If the media environment were even close to fair, this election would not be close. In fact, an even-handed media probably would have kept George W. Bush from winning either of his elections. On so many other issues, the media simply chooses the stories they want to publish, and more often than not those stories are favorable to the Republicans. Glenn Greenwald discusses this phenomenon at length here and here. Very much worth reading.

Troopergate Report: Palin Abused Power

I know I'm late blogging this, but it's still pretty big news. The bipartisan Alaska Legislative Council released Steven Branchflower's report into Troopergate, and it isn't pretty for Sarah Palin:

The just-released Trooper-Gate report finds that Sarah Palin abused her power in the firing of Walt Monegan, by violating an Alaska law holding that "each public officer holds office as a public trust, and any effort to benefit a personal or financial interest through official action is a violation of that trust."

This alone should disqualify her from the role of Vice President, and indeed should be grounds for impeachment or censure up there in Alaska. Obviously the Republican-led legislature might not do anything, especially before the election. But this is clear and credible proof that Sarah Palin is an unethical and corrupt politician who never should have been selected by John McCain for this position.

Imagine Sarah Palin being president in February. With two wars and the greatest financial crisis since 1929. Think about that for a moment, then make sure you VOTE to ensure that doesn't happen.

But what's even more shocking is that Sarah Palin refuses to admit any wrongdoing, and is in fact lying about the report's conclusions:

Despite the finding of a legislative report that she had broken the state's ethics law in the scandal dubbed Troopergate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said Saturday that the report actually cleared her of any "legal wrongdoing or unethical activity."

....

However, the report found that Palin, her husband Todd, and her subordinates used pressure and intimidation to try to force the firing of Michael Wooten, beginning before her swearing-in ceremony took place, and therefore broke the law.

The investigation said she violated Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act, which states, "… each public officer holds office as a public trust, and any effort to benefit a personal or financial interest through official action is a violation of that trust."

Palin said she's happy the report affirmed her right to fire Monegan. But she said she still doesn't think she abused her power like the report says she did. In fact, she said she considered herself vindicated....

When reminded that the report's first finding was that she had broken the state's ethics law in pressuring for Wooten's dismissal, Palin responded that she felt she had done nothing wrong at all, and directed her response to the firing of Monegan, which the report said she had the authority to do:

"I think that you’re always going to ruffle feathers as you do what you believe is in the best interest of the people whom you are serving. In this case I knew that I had to have the right people in the right position at the right time in this cabinet to best serve Alaskans, and Walt Monegan was not the right person at the right time to meet the goals that we had set out in our administration.

"So no, not having done anything wrong, and again very much appreciating being cleared of any legal wrongdoing or unethical activity at all."

Sarah Palin is a pathological liar, on top of being a mental midget and a corrupt hypocritical soulless cretin. She should not be allowed anywhere near the White House and indeed she deserves to be repudiated soundly on Nov. 4th.