Letterman Rips Palin

Pretty funny:

New Obama Ads

Health care and taxes seem to be the order of the day:

Creepy McCain Has His Dean Scream Moment

Really funny:



Goes along perfectly with this debate review by conservative pundit Rich Lowry:

Palin too projects through the screen like crazy. I'm sure I'm not the only male in America who, when Palin dropped her first wink, sat up a little straighter on the couch and said, "Hey, I think she just winked at me." And her smile. By the end, when she clearly knew she was doing well, it was so sparkling it was almost mesmerizing. It sent little starbursts through the screen and ricocheting around the living rooms of America.

It's as if Sarah Palin is just the sexy plaything of Republican creeps, a VPILF as they have called her, rather than a serious candidate for the vice-presidency. And of course, she's playing right into that.

I have a feeling many people in the Republican party will look back on this moment in shame. If they have any left after George W. Bush, that is.

Honesty

Given how slimy and dishonest John McCain's campaign has become, let's step back in time and look at a web ad he ran back in April.



So John McCain, who ran an ad talking about how his high school teacher taught him to never tell a lie, has become one of the biggest liars we've seen in national politics. Just a brief example, here is a new attack ad going after Obama on taxes:



The ad is a straight-up lie. Obama will cut taxes on everyone making under $150,000/year, and that 94 number is total b.s. By the same criterion, John McCain has voted to raise taxes 477 times. McCain's campaign has been dishonest for months, but it has really picked up recently.

I have a feeling that John McCain's former schoolteacher would be very disappointed in his current behavior.

Debate Reactions

Conor Friedersdorf

To put a finer point on this, I ask the following of everyone who watched tonight’s debate — were John McCain assassinated at his inauguration by terrorists, even as two American cities saw buildings partially blown up by truck bombs, and Vladimir Putin used the opportunity to move troops into a former Soviet Repulic, would you trust that Governor Palin would have the knowledge, credibility, bearing and calming influence on the country to handle the situation? Or would having her in the Oval Office freak you out in a deep way? I’d be frightened, and I expect a lot of people now supporting Governor Palin would think, "Oh God, what have I done."

Ezra Klein:

One more point worth making on last night's debate: Give Joe Biden props for restraint. Again and again, Palin would say something atrocious enough that the room I was in would quiet. Here it comes. "White flag of surrender." Here it comes. "She'll get her reward in heaven." Here it comes. "I respect your experience, but I think people want new energy." Here it comes. But it never came. Biden just smiled, looked down, and quietly choked a puppy or something. He'd leave the attack sitting there, twitching before the audience.

This was clearest when, in one answer, Palin accused Obama and Biden of waving the "white flag of surrender," called Biden was a McCain supporter "at least until you became the VP pick here," and said that when it comes to treating the military with honor, "Barack Obama though, another story there."

Here it comes.

But what was supposed to be Palin's crowning line -- what would have been a powerful attack for a Republican to make in 2004 -- was her lowest moment. And Biden let her keep ownership of it. He didn't fire back, or accuse McCain and Palin of being the real surrender-monkeys. He just...let it go. Let the mayor of Wasilla accuse the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee of betraying his country and deserting our troops. It was a part of his performance that only came clear in the aggregate, but was probably harder to master than all the other answers and soundbites and rejoinders combined. The discipline on display -- particularly for someone with Biden's character traits and self righteous tendencies -- was really remarkable. He followed the plan rather than listening to his own instincts. In a way, last night he proved more than that he was a good choice for VP. He proved himself willing to earn the spot.

Steve Benen:

The McCain campaign needed Palin to come out and speak in complete sentences. She did. They needed her not to humiliate herself as she did with Katie Couric. She did that, too. But given the recent trajectory of the campaign, the campaign also needed this debate to help turn things around for John McCain. And that clearly didn't happen -- Biden wouldn't let it happen.

I get the sense the entire Republican world exhaled last night, around 10:32 p.m. eastern, when they realized Palin had gone 90 minutes without making an obvious fool out of herself. But their relief should be temporary -- the race looks no different now than it did 24 hours ago. Republicans were losing then, and they're losing now.

VP Debate Wrap-Up

If you watched any of Sarah Palin's Alaskan debates, you pretty much knew what to except from her. Folksy, vacuous, memorized answers with absolutely no substance or depth. If she didn't feel comfortable with a question she ignored it, otherwise she simply spouted off with a cloud of words to fill the time.

Did she beat expectations? Of course, it would have been almost impossible not to. In fact, considering the awful performance by moderator Gwen Ifill, who asked no follow-up questions and never pressed either candidate for specifics, it was impossible for Palin to screw up. She didn't have to answer the questions, so she didn't. She didn't have to get specific, so she didn't. None of the questions were in the least bit difficult or challenging. Ifill shamed herself with a pathetic performance.

And let me just say this right now. Because she is a woman, Joe Biden was constrained from destroying her on the spot. He wasn't allowed to do like Lloyd Bentsen in 1988 and put her in her place. It would have been a risky move, it would have seemed mean or condescending, it might have garnered sympathy for poor Palin. Palin is a crass and devious politician, she might have responded to any put-downs by playing the victim card immediately and that would have been risky for Biden.

But in my universe, I do wish Biden had laid into her. Here are some examples of what he could have said:

BIDEN: Why don't you drop those GOP talking points and answer a question for once? You think that during negotiations with Putin or Wen Jiabao you can just spout memorized lines and think they'll take you seriously? These are serious time folks, two wars and an economy headed into recession brought to us by George W. Bush. And as we can see tonight, John McCain and his running mate have no clue how to fix things.

Or maybe:

BIDEN: Who are you to question Barack Obama's patriotism, or his love for our troops? He's visited the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. He's been to Walter Reed. He worked to pass the new G.I. Bill, which by the way John McCain opposed. Go ahead and discuss our policy issues, if you even know them beyond these memorized talking points and cue cards, but don't question the character of my friend and running mate.

That said, I think Joe Biden did a great job. He didn't make any serious gaffes, he didn't come across as mean, and he demonstrated both real humanity and a command of the issues. He looked like a master, while Palin looked like a performer in a spelling bee (as Chris Matthews pointed out).

I give this to Joe Biden all the way. Most of the insta-polls agree. But I also believe that Palin did herself some good by avoiding any epic cringe-worthy moments and thus assured her rabid right wing base. I don't think McCain will have to drop her from the ticket -- yet. Troopergate's findings come out on October 10th, and that should be quite interesting. The rest of the news we hear about Sarah Palin will be bad news.

Palin Knows Roe...And Nothing Else

Katie Couric asks Sarah Palin if she can name any Supreme Court cases aside from Roe:



Part of me wishes that the entire Katie Couric interview were broadcast all at once, instead of being pieced out in bits over two weeks. But the political side of me loves it, because it keeps it in the news for a very long time. It's not just a single trainwreck interview on a single night, but instead an ongoing saga of trainwreck goodness.

I wish Katie Couric had enough tape to last us until the election. But I'm guessing we're near the end of the Couric-Palin onslaught. Katie Couric gets a lot of credit, although in many ways her questions aren't that hard. Palin is the reason this is a story. She is unable to answer questions that any member of the House or Senate would have no trouble with. Incredible.

Here is the full video (including Biden's responses):



If you are curious what court case Biden is referring to -- the one he disagrees with -- read this NY Times story:

Declaring that ''the Constitution requires a distinction between what is truly national and what is truly local,'' the Supreme Court today invalidated a six-year-old provision of federal law that permitted victims of rape, domestic violence and other crimes ''motivated by gender'' to sue their attackers in federal court.

The 5-to-4 decision, striking down the civil remedy provision of the Violence Against Women Act, was the latest application of the court's newly restrictive view of Congressional power and of the degree of deference that Congress is owed by federal courts. Although one of the most sweeping of the justices' decisions in this area recently, it will almost certainly not be the last.

Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist's majority opinion rejected each of the two sources of constitutional authority that Congress had asserted as the basis for the legislation. The majority concluded that the civil remedy provision was neither a valid regulation of interstate commerce nor a proper means of enforcing the equal protection guarantee of the 14th Amendment. [Excerpts, Page A20.]

The decision affirmed a ruling last year by the federal appeals court in Richmond, Va., dismissing a suit brought by a college student against two varsity football players whom she accused of raping her in her dormitory room shortly after the start of her freshman year.

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., the chief Senate sponsor of the Violence Against Women Act, said at a news conference today that ''this decision is really all about power: who has the power, the court or Congress?''

It's pretty clear which of the two candidates is ready for the job, and which one is clearly out of her league.

McCain/Palin 2008

Ladies and Gentlemen, your Republican ticket circa 2008.

First up, Angry John McCain:



Next up, brilliant Gov. Palin:



If this doesn't look like the Nightmare Ticket, then I don't know how to persuade you.

Biden's Gaffes

I know some folks fret over Biden's penchant for gaffes, but I just think it's hilarious. The guy's got a big mouth, sometimes the filter between what he thinks and what he says isn't fully operative, but I think it's endearing. He's not trying to pull one over on us, he's not trying to lie to you, he's just Joe Biden. That's who he is.

Here is a blast from the past, a Senate debate in 1984. Lots of funny bits, especially the part at 9:00:



And some highlights from this year:

The VP Debate

I have to admit, I cannot wait for the VP debate on Thursday. I'm expecting it to be highly entertaining. In fact, I think it could rival the 1992 VP debate for pure drama.



By the way, is it unfair to mention that John McCain is four years older than Admiral Stockdale was in 1992? I know Stockdale became a laughingstock because of the 1992 debate, but in reality he is a true American war hero. He received the Medal of Honor, he spent 7 years in a Vietnamese POW camp, and he was president of the Naval War College and the Citadel. He taught at Stanford University. He is the kind of man John McCain wishes he could be.

Unlike Admiral Stockdale, who didn't know he would be participating in the VP debate until a week earlier, Sarah Palin has no excuses. She's been on the ticket for a month now, she is young and vibrant, and she's been in politics for the past ten years. Some folks seem to think that as long as she coherently answers at least one question, she'll beat expectations. But that's a bunch of bull.

There are still millions of Americans who haven't seen the Gibson or Couric interviews. They saw Sarah Palin's RNC speech and think that was a true representation of her intelligence and abilities. They aren't going to be happy with a single non-flubbed answer. They'll want to see proof that she is actually qualified for the job. Normally a VP has to spend his/her time attacking the other party's presidential candidate while defending their own candidate. But Palin will be hard-pressed to simply defend herself.

Palin's Debate History:

While running for Alaskan governor in 2006, Sarah Palin turned in a very confident and credible debate performance:



If she is able to answer every question with this sort of knowledge and self-assurance, she will be fine and might even be declared the winner of the debate simply because of her comeback kid story. But while Palin is well-informed about provincial Alaskan issues, she has demonstrated a shocking lack of knowledge about national and foreign issues.

Biden's Debate History:

Joe Biden regularly won debates against Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The guy is entertaining and quick on his feet. The only way he can screw up is by committing too many gaffes or by ridiculing Palin the way he has ridiculed Rudy Giuliani.



If he keeps his answers short and sweet, if he rips John McCain every chance he gets, if he offers praise to Barack Obama, if he gets in a few zingers at President Bush, he'll be fine.

Summary:

Let's be honest -- this has the potential to be a mismatch of epic proportions. Dan Quayle was a terrible debater, but he knew the issues a hell of a lot better than Sarah Palin. And while Joe Biden has some weaknesses of his own, he's a funny and charismatic guy who is never at a loss for words. He knows more about policy issues than almost anyone in D.C.

Honestly, this is like picking some random city council person out of Wasilla, Alaska and having them debate Joe Biden. Yes, Palin has a month to prep, but come on. Unless she's been fooling us all along, this is going to be a bloodbath. I'm not playing games here, this could get ugly. Biden won't go after Palin, he'll probably be nice to her, but Palin has the potential to do an all-time bellyflop in front of 80 million people this Thursday.

Grab your popcorn and soda, it's gonna be quite a show.

Obama Knocks McCain The Gambler

I know it's a very small moment. But when Sarah Palin couldn't come up with the word "characterize" during the Couric interview and instead said "I don't know" it was perhaps her worst moment yet. Not only could she not come up with the word -- we all have that problem once in a while -- but she couldn't come up with a different way of phrasing it. She just wilted in the moment.

Miserable McCain

You know, it's tough running for president when you are 72 years old, you're tired, you don't give a damn anymore, and you wish this know-it-all rookie would just get out of your way and let you take the throne.

John McCain has no new ideas about leading the country forward. For him, it's status quo the whole way. Yeah, he might get excited about vetoing a few earmarks and rattling some sabers, but the guy doesn't really give a shit about the country as a whole. His selection of Sarah Palin to be his successor pretty much proves that. He wants to win, he wants to be called "Mr. President", and he wants to prove to his Admiral father and Admiral grandfather that he's the best McCain ever. He probably doesn't have a long time to live given his declining health, so it is all about the here and now.

I won't lie. Barack Obama has quite a lot of ambition as well. I don't think he's trying to prove anything to his father or grandfather; he surpassed their career achievements back in the 1980s when he was accepted into Harvard. But he does think that he has the ideas and skills needed to lead the country forward. Where did he get such an idea? Well, for the last twenty years everyone who met him thought he could be the first black president. Such talk went mainstream after his 2004 DNC speech, and probably kicked his ego up a notch. But having read both of Obama's books, I really don't see any megalomania in the guy. He's incredibly smart, he has good ideas, and he thinks he can get the job done. Unlike John McCain, for him the road doesn't end on Jan. 20th. It ends when the country is back on the right track. His selection of Joe Biden as VP proves that he cares more about governing than about immediate political considerations.

Today was a terrible day for stocks, just another sign that a lot of folks are hurting. I don't have any skin in the game, but my friends and family do. And while the events of the past two weeks weren't all McCain's fault, he definitely didn't help. Just last week he "suspended" his campaign to return to Washington and get a deal done. Was he effective? Nope. 66% of the Republicans in the House voted against the bailout bill. Obviously McCain has no influence with these guys, nor did he seem to know that the bill was doomed to failure. Obama and the Dems delivered over 140 votes as promised, while Mr. Suspension and his GOP allies didn't. So the news today is that the bailout bill failed, the stock market fell, and John McCain's credibility took another hit.

Ultimately, I lay all of this at the feet of George W. Bush and the people who enabled him. That includes John McCain and just about every Republican in Washington. First Bush stole the election in 2000 with an assist from his Supreme Court pals, then he went on to wreck the country with his tax cuts, his Iraq war, his deregulation schemes and crony capitalism. All of our suffering is directly related to the horrible stewardship of George W. Bush. I really don't know how Ralph Nader can look himself in the mirror every day. His declaration in 2000 that there wasn't a sliver of difference between Bush and Gore couldn't be more ridiculous.

In 2000, we had a $300 billion surplus. Thanks to Bush, we will have a trillion dollar deficit next year. In 2001, gas was $1.50. Thanks to the Iraq war, the falling dollar and our failure to invest in alternative energy, it is now $3.80. We were once at peace. Now we are in two wars that have lasted a combined 12 years. When Bush took office the Dow Jones was at 10,587. Fast-forward through eight years of an MBA/CEO-style presidency, and the Dow is at 10,365. Even if you are a fat cat Republican and wealth is your only consideration, this pathetic stock market performance under Bush should have you reconsidering things.

John McCain can call himself a maverick reformer all he wants, but he hasn't done shit to slow down Tasmanian Bush. He campaigned for Bush twice, he endorsed Bush over John Kerry in 2004 despite Bush's obvious failures, and he has voted with Bush 90% of the time. This is why John McCain's poll numbers continue to plummet. People aren't thinking about Britney Spears and lipstick and Rev. Wright anymore. They are thinking about how Bush has destroyed this country, and how John McCain was right there alongside him while it happened.

John McCain can still win this thing, no doubt. Five weeks is a lifetime in politics. But I guarantee that he will not win because of his own political skills or ideas. He will only win with an assist from outside events such as a major Obama scandal or a foreign policy crisis. McCain has lost his credibility, his VP is a national laughingstock, and the GOP brand is in the gutter.

It's Panic Time Again For McCain

During the Democratic convention, I guessed (correctly) that the McCain campaign was in panic mode. With the selection of Joe Biden and the prospect of a big Obama boost coming out of the convention, McCain needed something to shake things up and steal back the limelight.

All of his VP prospects had weaknesses, some more glaring than others. This is what I wrote about Sarah Palin:

Even if she didn't have an ongoing scandal, how the hell is she going to debate Joe Freaking Biden on foreign policy? Sorry, reading "Foreign Policy For Dummies" over the next month doesn't get the job done.

I expected her to know nothing about foreign policy. But I didn't know she had a corrupt past, that her views on abortion were so extreme, or that she would wilt under the easiest of press questions. I guess John McCain didn't know this stuff either, although it was kinda his job to figure that stuff out before hitching his presidential ambitions to the Palin train.

At this point the McCain campaign is lurching badly, in danger of falling apart altogether. Here are the current tracking polls:

Rasmussen
Obama: 50
McCain 44

Gallup
Obama: 50
McCain: 44

Research 2000
Obama: 50
McCain: 43

Diageo/Hotline
Obama: 47
McCain: 42

Although I don't put 100% faith in polls, I do know that if Obama were behind by these margins I would be very worried right now. Once you get into October, it becomes increasingly difficult to move poll numbers in a big way. But just as we saw polls flip rather dramatically after the conventions and during the last two weeks, we could easily see things tilt McCain's way in the weeks ahead.

But I am having a hard time figuring out how McCain turns this around. The easy answer is that he goes even more negative than he already has. Which means Rev. Wright, Ayers, Rezko, etc. But that is some seriously weak shit. The whole country dealt with Rev. Wright back in March, so a bunch of "god-damn America" commercials would seem desperate and off-topic. It would probably lower Obama's likability numbers a bit, but it would also lower McCain's even further. And after the last month, McCain can't afford to damage his brand any more than he already has.

McCain can try to win the hard way, by overpowering Obama in the remaining debates and offering up better economic and foreign policy proposals. He could oppose the bailout and instead offer up some big popular alternative, like $500 billion for new schools, mass transit, renewable energy and 5 million jobs. But this is like asking a tiger to change its stripes. The McCain campaign has never been about issues or competency, it's been all about lipstick, pigs, celebrity, character, and other nonsense. And considering that Palin is about to humiliate the Republican party during Thursday's debate, this win-their-minds strategy has dire prospects for success.

Just as an economic crisis has helped Obama in the polls, a foreign policy crisis could help McCain. Imagine if Israel (with Bush's approval) launches air strikes against Iran and starts a wider Mideast war. Like it or not, warmonger McCain could benefit initially from such an event. A major terrorist attack could also benefit McCain, simply because he is viewed as "stronger" than Obama. Anything relatively minor, like a new Bin Laden tape or further Russian problems, probably wouldn't have a big effect. I'm talking mainly about "do you remember where you were when--" type events.

But short of a disaster scenario, what can McCain do? His best hope is that Sarah Palin comes through big time in the debate on Thursday. She probably has no chance of winning, but she has to somehow answer the questions with just enough substance that the right wing media machine can defend her. Anything approaching the Couric interview would be fatal.

McCain could also try to replace Palin from the ticket, but as I've stated before (and as Nate Silver discusses here) such a move might guarantee a McCain loss. The same goes for canceling the VP debate altogether. It would lead to a month of bad press and would basically confirm that Palin isn't qualified for the job. Plus, McCain has already pulled the "cancel debate" card and it flopped.

So I guess we'll see what the next few weeks brings. McCain appears to have used up his reservoir of razzle-dazzle, but you never know what that crazy maverick has up his sleeve. I do know that I wouldn't want to be in his war room right now.