McCain Is Underestimating Obama
One who knows the enemy and knows himself will not be in danger in a hundred battles.
One who does not know the enemy but knows himself will sometimes win, sometimes lose.
One who does not know the enemy and does not know himself will be in danger in every battle.
-Sun Tzu, The Art of War
"He [Barack Obama] really has no experience or knowledge or judgment about the issue of Iraq and he has wanted to surrender for a long time. If there was any other issue before the American people, and you hadn't had anything to do with it in a couple of years, I think the American people would judge that very harshly.
-John McCain, 5/26/08
For weeks I've been wondering what the general election dynamic will be between Barack Obama and John McCain. In the eyes of some, such as Andrew Sullivan, they are alike in many ways - open-minded, rational, respectful, principled. From this perspective, the election will be about ideas. John McCain's reformist strain of Republicanism vs. Barack Obama's progressive/pragmatist strain of liberalism. They will disagree vociferously, the logic goes, but will respect the other side and keep the discourse at a high level. We've even heard talk of moderator-free debates between Obama and McCain as early as this summer.
But I think this reading is 100% wrong. For one thing, John McCain is not open-minded, rational, respectful or principled. The guy is a human weather-vane, doing whatever he must to win the election at all costs. When the political winds (or his own spite) call for him to be a maverick on a few issues, he'll do that. In 2000 he ran as a moderate Republican in opposition to Bush, then took a few maverick stands in 2001 (such as voting against the tax cuts and flirting with leaving the Republican party) because of his anger towards Bush. Heck, he might have even voted against Bush in the 2000 election.
But that was then, a brief hiccup in an otherwise strongly hard right record. McCain quickly came back into the conservative fold after 9/11, and since then he has voted with Bush over 89% of the time. For the past four years he has been running for president, and as a result he has shredded the last vestiges of dignity that he once had. He has flip-flopped on torture, immigration, tax cuts, Roe vs. Wade, ethanol, campaign finance reform, "agents of intolerance", lobbyists -- you name it, he's flipped on it. So no, John McCain is not principled, and he isn't open-minded about anything that might upset the right wing base. His policies aren't rational (they are mostly just xerox copies of the Bush mistakes), and his statements have become increasingly out of touch with reality.
But most important: McCain does not like Senator Obama, and he does not respect him. This animosity goes back a long way, to at least 2006. McCain is known for his hot temper and his grudges, so it is unlikely that things will cool between he and Obama any time soon. Sure, McCain and Bush made up and became friends, but does anyone think that wasn't a political decision? Do you think McCain really likes the guy who smeared his wife and kids?

But McCain is making a huge tactical blunder in this election, one for which he will pay a dear price. He is underestimating Obama.
Perhaps McCain is blinded by hatred. Maybe he thinks his opponent will be a pushover, like Kerry and Gore before him. McCain has never faced a serious Democratic challenger in Arizona, so perhaps he is simply inexperienced when it comes to having a real foe on the left. But Hillary Clinton made the same mistake, and you see where she is today. Clinton's advantages over Obama were much greater than McCain's, and she is a strong candidate. Yet Obama took her out without breaking a sweat, leaving the Clinton campaign confused and shocked.
Nobody is calling McCain "inevitable", but he's acting like he is. As you can see from the quote above, McCain dismisses Obama as inexperienced, naive, ignorant, and misguided. Perhaps this is why McCain doesn't even try to get his facts straight, why he blows up in anger when criticized, and why he is foolishly running his campaign on the same lame themes used by Clinton.
This may also explain why McCain's campaign is still in disarray, why he has been slow to make a VP pick, and why he has so far failed to either define himself, define Obama, or build a campaign infrastructure. The guy has had almost four months to himself, and his poll numbers have stayed flat as a pancake.
Obama is going to be in full general election mode by the middle of next week. He is going to consolidate the Democratic base, register voters, train volunteers, and continue to raise money hand over fist. McCain has had a huge head start, the kind usually afforded only to incumbents, and what does he have to show for it? Some of the worst TV ads ever made. No consistent message. Vague policy ideas. Weak fundraising. An unsatisfied base. Multiple campaign scandals. And lots of hand-wringing by Republican insiders.
McCain really needs to get his act together. And he needs to knock off the smug attitude he has towards Obama. Not that it will bother me much, but McCain is setting himself up for an ass-whupping if he takes his opponent lightly.



