Prediction Time

The election is tomorrow, so make sure you get out there and VOTE. I don't care where you live, who you are voting for, or whether the election is called before you make it to your polling place. It doesn't matter. Just get down there and vote.

If you've already voted, like me, then make a difference by doing some GOTV work.

First I'd like to warm you guys up with my single favorite video of the entire campaign. There have been a lot of great videos, but this is still my favorite:



Everything you need to know about why John McCain would be a disastrous pick for president is in that video.

Now, it's time for predictions. I'm terrible at predictions because I'm one-half cautious and superstitious, and I'm one-half unrealistically optimistic and hopeful. So while half of me thinks McCain could still eek out a tiny victory tomorrow and crush the hearts of the world, my other half just won't believe that this could happen two presidential elections in a row. After Bush barely squeaked by in 2004, I just won't let myself belief that the GOP could do it again after all the country has gone through.

On top of which, Obama is a damn fine candidate who has run a nearly flawless campaign.

So here are my predictions. The state map will look something like this:


As you can see, I was pretty generous to Obama in this map. I gave him all the states in which he is ahead in the polls, as well as Montana -- where he is tied. The only other states that he could plausibly win are North Dakota, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana, but I think those will all fall to McCain. The map I've posted would be incredibly awesome if it came to fruition, but I would be delighted with just 270 electoral votes as well.

In the Senate, I see the Democrats picking up eight seats to bring them to 59 in the Senate. Either Al Franken or Jim Martin will lose, which is a shame because I really like both of them. The seats in VA, NM, CO, AK, OR, NC, and NH should be pickups for the Dems, barring any major polling errors.

In the House, I really don't have a clue how things will go down. So I'll just be optimistic and say the Democrats will win 26 seats, putting us as 262-173.

I've pulled all of these predictions out of you-know-where, so don't bet any money on them. I have no interest in predicting the California ballot initiatives, because it just makes me sick to think that 1A could fail or that 4 or 8 could pass. I do think that if 8 passes, it will be overturned within two years.

(BTW - I've knocked on wood seven times with each hand so as to reverse any possible jinxes that could be caused by this post. Second of all, I made no predictions before the 2000 election and we lost anyway, so what the hell)