Polls and Healthy Skepticism

Here is what Electoral-Vote.com told us the map looked like on October 31st, 2004:

Kerry: 283
Bush: 246
Tied: 9


At the time I thought Kerry had a chance to pull ahead and win. I left L.A. to do GOTV in Nevada, and it wasn't until after knocking on my last door on election day that my bubble was burst. I attended a DNC-funded afterparty at the Rio hotel, and you would have thought it was a funeral.

I was a zombie for the next month.

What happened? How did it go so wrong? Well, electoral-vote.com was being quite generous to Kerry, giving him Florida even though Bush was up in 2 of the 3 most recent Florida polls. Iowa was tied in the polls and he gave it to Kerry. Bush was up in all the Nevada polls, but Electoral-Vote considered it a tie game. Bush was up in the New Mexico polls, but Electoral-Vote gave it to Kerry. Bush won all four of those states, in addition to New Hampshire.

Now, current polling sites give Obama a much, much bigger lead than Kerry had in this compilation. And those Obama leads are generally based on multiple polls where he is leading by more than three or four points. Not to mention, Obama's voters are more enthusiastic and his GOTV operation is unparalleled. But that's not the point. The point is that nothing is done until it is done. Don't trust the polls.

Until I actually see a map filled with blue on election night, until John McCain actually gives a concession speech, this is anyone's game.