The Dish Returns

Andrew Sullivan, who has long been a huge fan of John McCain, just returned from a two week vacation.

Unsurprisingly, he isn't impressed with where the McCain camp has taken this race.

The arrogant-celebrity meme is a variation on the usual Rovian fare: empty of actual policy substance but evocative of playground loyalties and resentments. Basically, McCain called Obama a girl, to appeal to the jocks, and then called him arrogant to flatter the nerds.

Paris Hilton is a two-fer. Choosing a female celebrity is integral to the usual attempt to feminize the Democrat. I could see nothing racist whatever in the message, mind you, but it was, as Weaver noted, pretty asinine.

Less asinine was McCain's two-pronged lie that Obama would rather lose a war than a campaign and that he snubbed injured troops in Germany. The former is repulsive and you can tell McCain knows it because he has a weird habit of saying it and then grinning broadly and humming a little to himself as a semi-laugh. He doesn't own the statement even as he says it. The charge itself is about as uncivil as it is possible to be, close to calling Obama treasonous, right? And the troop snub jibe is simply, demonstrably untrue, as the McCain camp was forced to semi-concede.

So McCain's main moves these past two weeks have been either childish or disgusting, and both times he has signaled he didn't really believe his own message.

He doesn't seem like a serious president to me.

McCain's campaign is accomplishing two things right now: ruining McCain's independent maverick straight-talker image, and painting Obama as a trendy overconfident empty suit.

We all know there are three major events left in this presidential campaign. The VP picks, the conventions, and the debates.

McCain can redeem his mavericky straight talk image with a very moderate VP pick, which he won't do. He could do it by somehow sounding moderate and gracious in his convention speech, but we all know it's gonna be a full bore attack on Obama (and not a very good one, I'm thinking). Or he can redeem himself in the debates, but if McCain's gaffe problem continues I just don't see how that happens.

Obama, meanwhile, has a much easier road. His VP pick will either bolster "change" or "experience", maybe even both. If he picks a centrist like Bayh or Clinton or Biden, he gets experience chips, whereas a governor like Kaine or Sebelius would emphasize the change route. My preferred choice out of these options would actually be either Biden or Sebelius. Biden can be a great attack dog, and he has more experience than McCain. Sebelius would please progressives, women, and those who want to see a true "change" ticket.

Next, Obama has his convention speech. If history is any guide, the guy is going to knock it out of the park. The only potential blunder would be running a gooey positive convention ala 2004, which fails to go after McCain. If Obama's speech has substance and bite, and maybe even a new proposal or two, it could really dispel some of these childish attacks coming from McCain about how unprepared Obama is.

Finally, Obama has the debates. It can't be overstated how critical these are. But they present many more dangers to McCain than to Obama. McCain is gaffe prone, he's built himself up at Mr. Experience, and by this point voters will think Obama is all style and no substance. So if Obama stays sharp and McCain is Mr. Angry Gaffe Machine, the millions of dollars spent on Britney and Moses ads will promptly be flushed down the toilet.

McCain had better hope he has a 5-10 point lead coming into the debates. I don't see how that's possible, but it's what he needs.

Otherwise, he's in big trouble.