A Word About Polls

Lately, I've seen quite a few talk amongst pundits and bloggers about whether Obama should be leading by even more than he currently is. Bob Herbert was just on Hardball, making the rather ludicrous claim that Obama should be leading by 15-20 points. In a perfect world this would be true. But in a perfect world Al Gore would have steamrolled George W. Bush, John Kerry would have steamrolled George W. Bush, there wouldn't be dumb saps out there who think Obama is a Marxist Muslim terrorist, and Hillary voters would wake up and realize that McCain is their worst nightmare.

Oh yes, and I should add that more folks should actually be paying attention to the issues, and where the candidates really stand.

But you know what? This is late July. Half the folks who vote in November aren't really paying attention right now. The polls are fun to look at, but they won't mean shit until after the conventions, after the debates. In fact, you could argue that none of the polls mean anything until the last week of the election.

But given all of these qualifiers, is Obama really doing that bad right now? 538 says he has a 59% chance of winning the election. Not bad for a 46-year-old first term Senator going up against a guy with 54 years of combined military and government experience. Obama has led or tied in the last 42 national polls dating to May 1st. Bush never had that kind of streak in 2000 or 2004. Obama has led or tied in the last 75 polls when you count daily tracking polls. That's an incredible streak.

And the new NBC/WSJ poll that has Chris Matthews all worried, because Obama is only up by 6? Well guess what -- when you add in third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, Obama's lead increases to 13. Obama's support is quite solid, while McCain's is weak and subject to dissipate. And hey -- even a 6 point lead would be a blowout in a national election.

Anything can happen, and as I've long stated, there will surely be a national poll at some point (maybe even this week) that will show John McCain ahead. I don't really think that's a bad thing, because it would give the Obama campaign some impetus to stop playing things too safe and refine their message on the economy, energy, etc. I doubt either candidate will get a huge bounce from the VP picks, simply because neither one has a really fantastic option available. If anything, the candidates have to avoid losing support by picking somebody controversial or out-of touch with their base or independents (Sam Nunn, Hillary Clinton, Bobby Jindal, Rudy Guiliani).

But overall, don't expect a whole lot of movement until after the conventions. And don't panic, because things are actually looking quite good for Obama right now. If the election were held tomorrow, he'd win easily.