Right Now, McCain Is Losing The Election

I'm sorry, I just can't get excited over all this Wes Clark/FISA/campaign finance b.s. This is the end of June, and none of this stuff's gonna matter come August, much less election day. Wes Clark committed a gaffe, the media pounced, it will be old news by next week. Clark isn't running for president. FISA pisses off highly-informed liberals and civil libertarians, but it's not the end of the world. Those telecom companies are still open to criminal liabilities, and Obama isn't going to continue Bush's warrantless wiretapping program. Obama's decision to decline public financing and raise money from small donors was his best decision of the month. Who cares if McCain whines about it, he would have done the same thing if he were in Obama's shoes.

What I'd like to do is step back and survey the landscape. I've got some interesting stats for you, courtesy of Real Clear Politics.

For example, did you know that McCain has not led in a national poll since May 3rd? Since then, Obama has led or tied in 30 straight polls.

Since February 1st, Obama has led in 62 polls. John McCain has led in just 10. That's a 62-10-5 record for Obama.

Obama's largest lead in 2008 has been 15 points. He has led McCain by double digits six times this year.

McCain's largest lead was 7 points. He has never led by double digits.

Since Obama announced his candidacy on Febuary 10th, 2007, his record against McCain in head-to-head polls is 95-21-12.

Exclude the ties, and Obama is winning 82% of the head-to-head polls since he started running for president, 86% in 2008, and 100% in the last two months.

For comparison's sake, I looked at the 2004 polls. From around Feb 1st 2004 until July 1st, Bush led Kerry in head-to-head polls 53-36-9. John Kerry took the lead in July and August (33-10-6), but swiftboating and the RNC convention knocked him back for good in September and October. Kerry only led Bush by double digits in a single February poll, and Bush only led Kerry by double-digits in two polls.

Yes, yes, I know that Michael Dukakis had a bigger lead on George H.W. Bush than Barack Obama has on John McCain right now. But as I've said before, Obama is not Dukakis and 2008 is not 1988. Right now Obama is crushing McCain in the polls, and nothing seems to have given McCain any signs of life.

Will McCain come back to life in July, August, September? We'll see. But to do so, he'll have to turn around a situation in which Obama has regularly led him from day one, despite being the lesser known candidate. I wouldn't want to be in the McCain campaign's shoes, that's for sure. No wonder they are so whiny.