October Surprise?

Sullivan:

But could it happen? Could Bush bomb Iran before the next election and create a sense of international crisis that could cause voters to swing back to McCain? From everything we know and Bush and Cheney, the answer, surely, is yes. His failed policies have left only one option to prevent Iran's going nuclear: war. And Bush must be chafing to see how his legacy could be dramatically changed if Obama wins. We could be facing the mother of all October surprises.

I think such a move would backfire. Americans are already pissed off at Bush for getting us into a misguided Middle East war, they'd surely recoil at yet another major war on the eve of an election.

If Iran actually bombed one of our ships or blew up some of our soldiers, then that could change the calculus. And no, that does not include Iraqi Shiites blowing up troops with "assistance" from Iran. I mean solid proof that Iranian soldiers themselves have killed Americans. But the chances of this happening are close to zero. Iran hasn't attacked another country unprovoked in over 100 years.

The sticky question is what would happen if Israel bombed Iran in September or October. Again, I think this is unlikely because Israel would not want to poison its relationship with Obama should he win the election anyway. If Obama visits Israel in the next two months, I'm sure he'll discuss the issue. But if it did happen, it would definitely put Obama in a tough spot. Yes, he would support Israel's actions as long as they provide ample justification (for example, they found a hidden nuclear reactor). Obama has had a tough time winning the pro-Israel/AIPAC vote, and coming out against the bombing of evil Iran just wouldn't look good.

But it would become well known that the Bush administration gave Israel the go-ahead, knowing full well that escalation with Iran might push more support towards McCain. Privately, you know Obama's team would be pissed. Their best strategy would be to cautiously support the bombing, yet remind voters that Iran only became dangerous because of Bush's failed policies. If Obama can tie the specter of constant chaos and war to the failures of Bush and McCain, then Americans might be even more inclined to vote Obama. But if it turns into another "Ra-ra, let's kill the Muslims" moment then Obama would be in trouble.