Obama Is Not Dukakis
Following the two recent polls showing Obama with a 15-point lead over John McCain, the Republicans and the media have been quick to point out that Michael Dukakis had a double-digit lead over George H.W. Bush in June of 1988, but lost the election by 7 points.
This is true, and is a reason why June polls aren't very reliable about election outcomes. Even when you see massive double-digit leads.
But let's not kid ourselves too much here, folks. Barack Obama is not Michael Dukakis. Not even close. Obama has more money, better campaign skills, better speechmaking abilities, better policies, and he is going up against a Republican party that is totally in the dumps. Dukakis, meanwhile, was going up against the VP of a fairly popular president (Reagan's 55% approval vs. George W. Bush's 23% approval).
And while Dukakis had his primary mostly wrapped up fairly early against flawed competition, Barack Obama had to campaign vigorously in every state in the country against the Clinton powerhouse. It was down to the wire, with every state involved. More Americans have paid attention, more folks know his strengths and weaknesses, he is much more of a known quantity than Michael Dukakis in June of 1988.
The whole reason Obama was nominated is because he opposed the unpopular war in which the country finds itself. His opponent, John McCain, thinks that war should continue for another 100 years. It sounds to me like McCain is the one on thin ice, not Obama. It is McCain that many voters are just starting to get to know. They are learning that he is 72 years old, that he voted with Bush 95% of the time during the last two years, that he is always getting confused about basic facts, that he is anti-choice, that he's a horrible speaker on the stump.
John McCain will surely win more than the 33% given to him in yesterday's LA Times poll. But will he reach 48, 49, or 50% needed to win the Electoral College? That is much dicier. Republicans can unleash Reverend Wright nonstop in October, but that's old news and may actually backfire if it looks too desperate and dirty. Already every American under 50 is laughing about the moronic "terrorist fist-jab" bullshit. That shit is weak. And while negative Swift Boating can move poll numbers a few percentage points, they don't give you a 15-point swing. Not when said smears have already been given a month of airtime and the victimized candidate is STILL leading by 15 points!
Obama is not Dukakis. He could lose this lead, he could lose this election. But right now, I'm having a tough time seeing how. Should be an interesting four months.
This is true, and is a reason why June polls aren't very reliable about election outcomes. Even when you see massive double-digit leads.
But let's not kid ourselves too much here, folks. Barack Obama is not Michael Dukakis. Not even close. Obama has more money, better campaign skills, better speechmaking abilities, better policies, and he is going up against a Republican party that is totally in the dumps. Dukakis, meanwhile, was going up against the VP of a fairly popular president (Reagan's 55% approval vs. George W. Bush's 23% approval).
And while Dukakis had his primary mostly wrapped up fairly early against flawed competition, Barack Obama had to campaign vigorously in every state in the country against the Clinton powerhouse. It was down to the wire, with every state involved. More Americans have paid attention, more folks know his strengths and weaknesses, he is much more of a known quantity than Michael Dukakis in June of 1988.
The whole reason Obama was nominated is because he opposed the unpopular war in which the country finds itself. His opponent, John McCain, thinks that war should continue for another 100 years. It sounds to me like McCain is the one on thin ice, not Obama. It is McCain that many voters are just starting to get to know. They are learning that he is 72 years old, that he voted with Bush 95% of the time during the last two years, that he is always getting confused about basic facts, that he is anti-choice, that he's a horrible speaker on the stump.
John McCain will surely win more than the 33% given to him in yesterday's LA Times poll. But will he reach 48, 49, or 50% needed to win the Electoral College? That is much dicier. Republicans can unleash Reverend Wright nonstop in October, but that's old news and may actually backfire if it looks too desperate and dirty. Already every American under 50 is laughing about the moronic "terrorist fist-jab" bullshit. That shit is weak. And while negative Swift Boating can move poll numbers a few percentage points, they don't give you a 15-point swing. Not when said smears have already been given a month of airtime and the victimized candidate is STILL leading by 15 points!
Obama is not Dukakis. He could lose this lead, he could lose this election. But right now, I'm having a tough time seeing how. Should be an interesting four months.
posted by Existenz | 5:15 PM
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