Horrible New Polls For McCain
Quinnipiac:
Obama has shown leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania before, but this is the first time he's shown a lead in Florida. Personally, I'm shocked by these numbers and surprised that they would come so soon.
I figured Obama wouldn't take the lead in Florida until after the VP or convention bounce, if at all. In a way, I expected McCain to lead in Florida until election day, thinking Obama might write off the state.
This could be an outlier, and McCain will probably lead in future polls. But if Obama is able to maintain a strong standing here, McCain is going to be in big trouble. He might be forced to pick Charlie Crist in order to hold the state. But even that won't solve his problems in Ohio. For McCain to have any chance in this election, he needs to win both of those states, period.
Florida
Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 43%
Margin of error: ±2.6%
Ohio
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 42%
Margin of error: ±2.6%
Pennsylvania
Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%
Margin of error: ±2.5%
Obama has shown leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania before, but this is the first time he's shown a lead in Florida. Personally, I'm shocked by these numbers and surprised that they would come so soon.
I figured Obama wouldn't take the lead in Florida until after the VP or convention bounce, if at all. In a way, I expected McCain to lead in Florida until election day, thinking Obama might write off the state.
This could be an outlier, and McCain will probably lead in future polls. But if Obama is able to maintain a strong standing here, McCain is going to be in big trouble. He might be forced to pick Charlie Crist in order to hold the state. But even that won't solve his problems in Ohio. For McCain to have any chance in this election, he needs to win both of those states, period.
posted by Existenz | 6:25 AM
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