In Case You Were Wondering...

No, I'm not dead and I haven't gone on another vacation. But, as is pretty obvious, I've basically stopped blogging here at OldManMcCain.com.

This blog was started for one reason and one reason only -- to help take down John McCain and prevent him from becoming President. I never had any delusions of grandeur here -- a no-name startup blog won't change many minds, if any. But I did something, I did my small part, and it was because of millions of people doing something that Barack Obama was elected by such a wide margin.

I began to blog less frequently in September and October, as Obama took a polling lead and the outcome of the election became more certain. At that point, the election was really out of the hands of small fry like myself anyway. It was up to Obama to perform in the debates, up to McCain to continue his dishonorable implosion, and up to Palin to continue dooming the ticket with her epic unpreparedness and meanspirited idiocy.

I mean really -- other than point at the McCain/Palin ticket and laugh, what was there to say?

So now the election is over, the election was won, and a blog titled "OldManMcCain" really has no use anymore. So this is probably my last post. I would like to conclude with a bit of analysis on the current state of politics and the state of the world.

The economy fucking sucks right now. And yes, it's gonna get much worse as layoffs continue and more businesses and banks go bust. At some point the government will have to stop bailing out failed businesses and insolvent homeowners and instead focus on creating new jobs, new industries, a new economy. Thank god we've got Obama in there, I can't imagine McCain doing anything but making the whole mess worse. He'd have been Hoover II, with a penchant for international conflict. Obama, if he is smart, will stop throwing money towards Wall Street and will instead throw money towards mass transit, renewable energy, infrastructure repair, SUPERTRAINS, and universal health care.

Obama's team is decidedly centrist, with about as many Republicans as progressives. Overall, however, it's chock-full of first rate minds and people with experience in their fields. Steven Chu at the Energy department is incredibly exciting, and I'm hopeful that Eric Holder will be a tough Attorney General who refuses to look the other way when it comes to Bush's war crimes. The Republicans will try to grill him in confirmation hearings, try to paint him as a partisan, and then dare him to actually do something as partisan as enforce the law. Hopefully Holder just bites his tongue and then appoints Patrick Fitzgerald as special prosecutor and lets him do his thing. The Republicans should realize that Bush will be issuing a boatload of pardons in the next month or so, and there's no clearer evidence of a need to investigate than a shitload of pardons to Karl Rove and Alberto Gonzales and Rumsfeld and the gang.

Bush's approval will stay in the toilet until the last day, and January will be filled with countdown clocks waiting for his nightmarish reign to end. After Jan. 20th, the whole Republican party can just kiss my ass as far as I'm concerned. They've ruined the country, and I'll be damned if we let them stand in our way as we try to get things back on track.

Anyway, farewell dear blogosphere. I'll still be contributing elsewhere, and I may start a new political blog at some point. Currently I have other projects to finish up first. To John McCain, I'm sorry for calling you an old coot despite your youthful energy and spirit, and to Sarah Palin I just have to say I'm sorry for your children to grow up in such a corrupt, anti-intellectual household.

And to Obama and Biden and their whole campaign team, thanks for making history.

On to 2009 and the start of a new day.

I'm Back

Sorry for the non-existent posting, I've been on a Caribbean cruise for the past week. Needless to say, the folks from other countries are more than relieved that Obama won the presidency. There was some celebrating going on in St. Lucia and Antigua, and plenty of Obama signs and t-shirts. And of course, cab drivers asking about Sarah Palin and WTF was McCain thinking with that?

The cruise was a lot of fun, although I wouldn't recommend Royal Caribbean unless you are over 60, like to be asleep by 8pm, love Charo and other D-list singers, think Park West is a great way to find art bargains, and don't mind eating the same Sizzler buffet-quality food every single day. Or, in my case, happen to be joined by a hot girl whose string bikini and jacuzzi addiction made the whole experience feel like heaven on Earth.

It was a good week.

Obama Wins

Did I forget to blog this? I doubt anyone reading this blog hasn't seen or heard the news already.

But yes, Barack Obama has just been elected the 44th president of the United States. It still hasn't sunk in. But this is awesome news for the country. Here in Los Angeles people have been honking horns, dancing in the streets, hooting and hollering. A great day to be an American.

John McCain, who I have lambasted for over half a year on this blog, gave a nice concession speech. It would have been easier to call for unity, however, if he hadn't been calling Obama an elitist celebrity socialist pedophile terrorist-sympathizer for the past few months. But I feel bad for the guy. He sold his soul and threw away his honor, and for what? The worst defeat by a Republican in 44 years. Now he gets to lick his wounds and go back to the Senate. But don't feel too bad for him -- he still has 7 houses, $100 million bucks, a comfy job. And unlike Obama, he doesn't have to save the world.

Obama has a major task before him, maybe greater than he knows. It will weigh heavily on him. The years ahead will be filled with great loss and sacrifice. George W. Bush has put us in a very deep ditch, and climbing out will not be quick or easy. But now that we have an intelligent, pragmatic progressive at the helm, we have a fighting chance.

Alaska: The Most Idiotic State In the Nation

Although they have tough competition with the Utah bigots who have blanketed CA airwaves with lies and hate for the past six weeks, Alaskans are on the verge of making themselves look like the biggest idiots in the United States.

Right now, it looks like corrupt crooks Ted Stevens and Don Young may win reelection. I have to say I'm pretty shocked. This goes against all the polling. Either people were lying to pollsters, or Alaska Democrats didn't show up to the polls. It stinks to high heaven.

If Ted Stevens is reelected, Harry Reid and the other Senators will force him to resign or simply expel him. Under Alaskan law, a special election would have to be called for a replacement. Who knows, maybe Sarah Palin would throw her hat into the ring. She'd quickly become the dumbest person in D.C.

If Alaska really does decide to reelect these clowns, I think the only just punishment is to shut off the spigot of pork than has been washing over that state for decades. No more money for bridges, no more money for pipelines, let them pay for that shit themselves. With all the oil profits they are taking in, surely they can afford it. It's time for Alaska to carry its own weight.

GOP Consultants

The GOP consultants on CNN have just argued that Dems need to govern from the center because Republican policies are so popular. Think about that for a minute.

James Carville quickly snuffed out that talk by mentioning that Democrats were on the path to win 14 Senate seats and 55 House seats and possibly the presidency within the course of two years.

Anyone who thinks Democrats should govern as Republican-lite needs to go talk to Max Cleland and Tom Daschle and Harold Ford and see how that worked out.

Ohio

Unless NBC, Fox and ABC are trying to screw with Democrats, it appears that Obama has won Ohio.

If this is real, Obama will be our 44th President.

Still waiting to see if Al Franken can pull out Minnesota, if Begich and Merkley can pull out their Senate seats, and if the right CA propositions pass.

The Nervous Moment

This is the limbo period, during election day but before any results have arrived, where Democrats like myself worry about whether all the polls were simply wrong and McCain/Palin will be leading our country for four years.

Plenty of other blogs have anecdotes of people waiting in line for hours to vote. I have a story too - my girlfriend waited in line here in true blue Hollywood for almost an hour. But what if these lines are filled with secret McCain voters who were missed by the polls? What if a large percentage of Obama voters decide they are too busy, too tired, too engaged with their Xbox games to go vote? What if the nightmare scenario comes true and we see McCain and Palin celebrating with smiles on their faces tonight?

I just can't imagine how depressing tomorrow would be if that is the case. So I'm just trying not to think about it.

Go vote.

Interesting Choice

Obama's final pre-election campaign rally was in Manassas, Virginia last night. Manassas is the site of the First Battle of Bull Run, also known as the First Battle of Manassas. It was the first major land battle of the Civil War.

There were more people at Obama's rally last night (90,000) than fought in that battle (67,500). Of course, the Second Battle of Bull Run, which pitted Robert E. Lee against Stonewall Jackson, had even more -- 112,000.

Vote, Mothafucka, Vote

Today is Election Day.

V-O-T-E.

Because remember, if you don't vote, you don't get to complain afterwards.

The Precipice of History

Tonight is election eve, what Andrew Sullivan is calling the "calm before the storm". Tomorrow history will be made, one way or another. Either we will see the election of the first African-American president, the first president from Hawaii, or we will see the oldest first term president in history, as well as the first female vice president.

This has been, without a doubt, the most amazing presidential campaign of my lifetime. I work in the movie business, I've read a lot of screenplays and novels, and the 2008 election has more drama than 99% of them. It is truly an epic election. Of course, it needs to come home with a happy ending, which means the election of Barack Obama. If McCain wins, the story is spoiled by the sort of sad, depressing ending that is typically found in forgettable art house pictures or box office bombs like "The Mist".

Since I've read both of Barack Obama's books and have followed politics rather closely since about 1992, I'm well aware of the lengthy prologue to this election. The rise and fall of Bill Clinton. The rise and fall of the Republican Congress. The stealing of the 2000 election by Bush and his cronies, followed by eight years of corruption, mismanagement, partisan thuggery, incompetence and war crimes. I watched Obama's 2004 convention speech live, I blogged the 2004 election at Daily Kos, and of course we all felt that heavy blow when Bush somehow, someway won that election against a clearly superior opponent. The country was immediately disillusioned with its choice. Once the Swift Boat ads were off the air, once the spinmeisters had gone home, people were left with President George W. Bush and realized they'd been swindled. His approval ratings fell under 50% almost from the day he took the oath a second time, and they haven't recovered since. The epic failure of the Republican party led to the Democratic party's landslide victories in 2006.

And then...2008. Good God this has been a long, grueling, amazing, unforgettable race. From the Iowa upsets by Obama and Huckabee, to the McCain resurgence and the Romney flame-out, to the endless Obama-Clinton war with its neverending drama, of which the highlight was clearly the Rev. Wright episode and Obama's historic speech on race relations, it was a primary season for the ages. Obama vs. Clinton was truly a battle of the titans, a clash for the heart and future of the Democratic party. The better person won, the better campaign won, but I have to give Hillary some credit -- she proved herself a fighter and she made Obama a stronger candidate in the process.

The general election campaign started way back in June, with McCain's green-screen fiasco and Obama's "fist jab" celebration in St. Paul. Compared to the Obama-Hillary race, this was like watching Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd. One candidate is cool, collected, one step ahead of the game. The other is a befuddled old bald guy who can't shoot straight and makes gaffes every time he opens his mouth. Obama went on a grand tour of the war zones and Europe, while McCain rode in a golf cart with Poppy Bush and knocked over apple sauce in a grocery store.

In August things got even better. Obama chilled out in Hawaii and picked Joe Biden after an extensive vetting process, while McCain basically put off any deliberations until the last minute. Obama had an extremely successful convention highlighted by Hillary, Bill, Michelle and himself, while McCain was in Arizona meeting his surprise VP for only the second time in his whole life. Sarah Palin. Jesus I still can't believe he really picked her. What a gift she's been to Obama, without Obama even having to attack her. Palin is dumber than Bush, more confident than Bush, and even more vicious than Bush. She's a dream come true for the rabid social conservatives, and a nightmare for anyone with a brain. McCain may have lost the election with the pick of Palin -- we'll see tomorrow.

And since Labor Day, well, it's been quite a ride. A huge financial meltdown followed by the duel meltdowns of Palin (w/ Katie Couric) and McCain (w/ David Letterman and the suspension of his campaign). Obama suddenly looked like the steady hand, whereas McCain and Palin looked like Amateur Hour. It was really pathetic and sad to see, but also wonderful for those tired of the McCain campaign's petty distractions. Suddenly the election was about real issues, it was about Bush's legacy, it was about "What the fuck do we do now?"

Three presidential debates, with McCain looking progressively angrier and older in each one, while Palin tried but failed to overcome the damage wrought to her image by Tina Fey and Katie Couric. McCain and Palin have continued to campaign, they've trotted out Joe the Republican Asshole, but they've been the walking dead for about a month now.

Perhaps tomorrow will bring a miracle for the Republicans and a crushing blow to Democrats, but I don't think so. That would be the biggest upset in at least 100 years, and an epic failure by every polling organization in existence. The next 30 hours will be some of the most exciting of the year, perhaps the decade. Grab the popcorn and hope for a happy ending.

McCain on TV

Is it just me, or does he sound really tired and sick these days? He doesn't sound healthy, that's for sure.

Prediction Time

The election is tomorrow, so make sure you get out there and VOTE. I don't care where you live, who you are voting for, or whether the election is called before you make it to your polling place. It doesn't matter. Just get down there and vote.

If you've already voted, like me, then make a difference by doing some GOTV work.

First I'd like to warm you guys up with my single favorite video of the entire campaign. There have been a lot of great videos, but this is still my favorite:



Everything you need to know about why John McCain would be a disastrous pick for president is in that video.

Now, it's time for predictions. I'm terrible at predictions because I'm one-half cautious and superstitious, and I'm one-half unrealistically optimistic and hopeful. So while half of me thinks McCain could still eek out a tiny victory tomorrow and crush the hearts of the world, my other half just won't believe that this could happen two presidential elections in a row. After Bush barely squeaked by in 2004, I just won't let myself belief that the GOP could do it again after all the country has gone through.

On top of which, Obama is a damn fine candidate who has run a nearly flawless campaign.

So here are my predictions. The state map will look something like this:


As you can see, I was pretty generous to Obama in this map. I gave him all the states in which he is ahead in the polls, as well as Montana -- where he is tied. The only other states that he could plausibly win are North Dakota, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana, but I think those will all fall to McCain. The map I've posted would be incredibly awesome if it came to fruition, but I would be delighted with just 270 electoral votes as well.

In the Senate, I see the Democrats picking up eight seats to bring them to 59 in the Senate. Either Al Franken or Jim Martin will lose, which is a shame because I really like both of them. The seats in VA, NM, CO, AK, OR, NC, and NH should be pickups for the Dems, barring any major polling errors.

In the House, I really don't have a clue how things will go down. So I'll just be optimistic and say the Democrats will win 26 seats, putting us as 262-173.

I've pulled all of these predictions out of you-know-where, so don't bet any money on them. I have no interest in predicting the California ballot initiatives, because it just makes me sick to think that 1A could fail or that 4 or 8 could pass. I do think that if 8 passes, it will be overturned within two years.

(BTW - I've knocked on wood seven times with each hand so as to reverse any possible jinxes that could be caused by this post. Second of all, I made no predictions before the 2000 election and we lost anyway, so what the hell)

Obama Remarks On His Grandmother

This is probably more raw emotion than I've ever seen from Obama. I just can't imagine how hard it must be to continue campaigning with the loss he has just endured. It's literally like losing his last parent:

Madelyn Dunham (1922-2008)

Barack Obama's grandmother Madelyn Dunham died this morning at the age of 86.

This is a terrible loss for Obama, and my thoughts go out to his family. It is quite fortunate that he was able to visit her last week and say his goodbyes. "Toot", as he calls her, lived a long and full life in which her daughter became a respected anthropologist and her grandson became a viable candidate for President of the United States. Barack and his sister released this joint statement:

It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer. She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances.

She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure.

Our family wants to thank all of those who sent flowers, cards, well-wishes, and prayers during this difficult time. It brought our grandmother and us great comfort. Our grandmother was a private woman, and we will respect her wish for a small private ceremony to be held at a later date.

You can see and hear Obama's grandmother briefly in this TV ad from earlier this year:



It's a shame that she didn't live to see what happens tomorrow, but maybe in her heart she already knew the outcome. I guess it's our job to make sure the outcome is a good one.

Live-blogging My Ballot

Here in CA you need to mail your absentee ballots by Friday (tomorrow) to ensure that they will arrive by Tuesday and be counted. So here goes...

Black pen -- check.

Absentee ballot - check.

Wow, there are actually three African American presidential candidates on this ballot: Obama, Cynthia McKinney and Alan Keyes. Three white guys led by McCain, including Nader and Barr.

...And I just voted for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Awesome. Please God let him win.

...Voted for Democrats down the line. Diane Watson is my Rep.

...For Superior Court judges, I went with the Democratic party endorsements: Merritt, Loo, Jones, Mack, and Crabb. I have to say that this is no way to pick a judge. You just have to have faith that these people are qualified. Appointments by the mayor or governor, approved by the city or county supervisors would be a hell of a lot better.

...Proposition time. I hate these CA propositions, I wish we could trash the whole system. More often than not, they are abused to the point of crippling our government and allowing the uninformed majority to punish the minority. There is a reason this country is a republic and not a true democracy -- the people should not be allowed to create laws through a majority vote, especially when most voters are too dumb or uninformed to make the right choice.

That said, I voted Yes on 1, 2, 3, 5, 11, and 12. The only one I really care about is 1A - high speed trains. We are so far behind almost every other civilized country when it comes to public transit, this would be a great first step for California. I don't know how selfish or stupid you have to be to vote against this. Even a Hummer driver would enjoy less traffic on the roads due to all the people riding trains instead.

...Voted No on 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. All of them are right wing attempts to restrict abortion, ban gay marriage, or increase criminal penalties in unfair ways. No thanks. I really hope 4 and 8 go down hard. Unfortunately, the No on 8 people have been doing a piss-poor job of taking their case to the public. The Yes on 8 people made this all about teaching gay marriage to little kids, and so now the prop is being fought on those grounds. Not a single TV ad has run with a gay celebrity discussing this as a civil rights issue. Not a single ad has been tailored to the black community, telling them that Barack Obama opposes Prop. 8. I fear this horrible piece of hate legislation might actually pass. The blame falls mainly on the Christian and Mormon conservatives behind it -- they are scum in my opinion. But the No on 8 people just haven't got their act together. They have a good new ad with Diane Feinstein, but why wasn't that ad running a month ago?

...County Measures. Yes on R, so we can fund more rail projects. No brainer.

...School measures. Voted yes because I'm a good liberal. Would rather have money going to schools than to prisons.

...City measures. Voted yes, once again because I'm a good liberal.

All done. Put the ballot in the envelope, signed it, now I'm off to the Post Office. I love being an American.

In A Sinking Economy

I have to agree that these are some of the funniest ads this cycle:







Brilliant.

Deep Thought

Is it possible to be a terrorist, communist, socialist, inexperienced celebrity Marxist Muslim radical -- all at once?

Alternative History

Kevin Drum writes:

Obama has run a good campaign, but if Hillary Clinton had won the nomination (or Al Gore or John Kerry or Socks the cat) they'd all be ahead by seven points too.

I couldn't disagree more. This really, really does not give Obama enough credit. And while it's easy to love Hillary again now that we are all on the same side, let's not forget that Hillary was and is a very polarizing figure amongst independents and Republicans.

Playing a game of alternative history is always fun, so let's do it. Let's say that Hillary won Iowa and somehow performed well enough in the caucus states to pull off a victory against Barack Obama. How would she have performed compared to Obama, and how would have McCain reacted?

Chaos and negativity. First, Hillary's campaign was incredibly poorly run, with the same kind of drama and in-fighting that we are seeing from the McCain camp. With Mark Penn churning out talking points and attack ads, they'd be right in the mud with McCain. Voters would view both candidates as negative, as opposed to the current situation where Obama is viewed as much more positive. The gap in favorability between Obama and McCain? Cut it in half if Hillary were the candidate. Actually, maybe just erase it altogether.

The inspiration factor. Hillary is not an inspiring speaker or motivator. Sure, plenty of Boomer women loved her and worked their asses off for her, but you wouldn't see GOTV operations as fully staffed with excited young people as you do now. Compare Obama's caucus turnout to Hillary's. That's where you see enthusiasm and dedication. Look at Obama's small dollar fundraising versus Hillary's. Same thing. Would Hillary have invested so much time and money into voter registration and GOTV? Nope. She would be running a typical Clinton/Gore/Kerry campaign, based on daily talking points and TV ads.

The financial meltdown. How would Hillary have reacted when McCain suspended his campaign and tried to postpone the debate? No one can know for sure, but I do know that Hillary was prone to stunts and panders all through the primary. With Mark Penn in her ear, she just might have suspended her campaign too and tried to take over the negotiations in the Senate. Hell, she would have tried to stick her terrible "freeze interest rates" and "freeze foreclosures" ideas into the bailout package. I don't think Hillary has the calm or the cool of Obama, and probably wouldn't have played this as masterfully as he did in those decisive days.

Sarah Palin. If Hillary were our nominee, there is no way in hell that McCain would have picked Sarah Palin. Heck, even if Hillary was Obama's VP then Palin would not have been chosen. Palin was strictly a desperate grab for the mythical PUMA vote, and it has backfired spectacularly. I'd say that 60% of McCain's drop in the polls has been a result of Palin, the other 40% because of the financial crisis. Replace Palin with Romney, Pawlenty, or Huckabee and McCain gets an instant 3-4 point bump in the polls, maybe more. Palin has literally destroyed McCain's campaign, leaving him to hope that conservative white voters pull him across the finish line despite the campaign and despite the candidates at the top of the ticket.

Smear and fear. You think that McCain would have had a tough time finding ways to attack Hillary? Ha! Obama is actually hard to attack, because you have to make things up out of thin air. Muslim, socialist, radical, blah blah blah. With Hillary, the Republicans have warehouses full of dirt. Just start with Bill Clinton's 2001 pardons -- Marc Rich, convicted members of the Weather Underground, some Puerto Rican radicals. Or how about a Whitewater rerun? Or maybe endless ads about Hillary's snipergate lies, contrasted with McCain's real war service? Let's not get into Bill's presidential library and the secret donors behind it, or Hillary's connections to convicted Chinese donors. Trust me, it would have been just as ugly as it is now, except there would have been more truth behind the Hillary smears. Half of the stuff has been cycling through right wing media for fifteen years already.

On the plus side, Hillary is a stronger debater than Obama and would have more than held her own against McCain. He's a world class misogynist and might have allowed his patronizing attitude to come through, hurting his favorability. And yes, McCain is a terrible candidate who wouldn't have inspired his base in a world without Palin.

But don't tell me the numbers would be exactly the same with any other candidate. Obama is a once-in-a-generation politician running the smoothest campaign ever seen by a Democrat. He's a world class speaker with sky high favorability and charisma, and incredible political instincts.

With Hillary we would still be favored, but the race would be a few points tighter and nobody can convince me otherwise.

Questions

Would John McCain have ever considered a male governor with as little experience, and as little real world knowledge, as Sarah Palin? After meeting him just once?

If Kay Bailey Hutchinson or Olympia Snowe were about 20 years younger and looked like Sarah Palin, would they have received stronger consideration?

Why does McCain pronounce Washington as "Wershingtun"?

Does anyone else find it interesting that Barack Obama's grandmother is ten years younger than McCain's mom?

What is Obama's 30-minute ad going to look like? Will it be a nuts-and-bolts presentation like Perot's 1992 ads, a sappy campaign documentary, a speech, or what? Personally, I'm hoping it's an entertaining yet informative look at Obama's policies and ideas. A mix of graphs, videos, documentary-style expose, etc. With special guest bits by Joe Biden, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, Bill Clinton, and Colin Powell. And I really hope it builds the Democratic brand, not just Obama's. Senate candidates in Minnesota, North Carolina, Georgia and Kentucky could use the boost.

Will Bin Laden or Al Qaeda do anything this week?

Does anyone under age 50 really tremble at the word "socialist"? Anyone over 50? Anyone who is not a Republican?

When will the media finally start ignoring Joe the Tax-Cheating Republican Asshole Plumber?

If Obama wins the election, will there be parties in the streets?

If McCain wins, would he force her to resign rather than keep her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the presidency? Would Palin resist such efforts?

If Democrats win 57 or more Senate seats, will any moderate Republicans (Snowe, Collins, Specter) switch parties the way some Dems switched parties after the 1994 blowout?

Does anyone else think that Palin's clothing looks a lot worse now that she is wearing her "own clothes"? Spending $150,000 is outrageous whether you are a man or woman, but they did look stylish and fitted - unlike the frumpy Mrs. Santa Claus clothes she is sporting now.

Polls and Healthy Skepticism

Here is what Electoral-Vote.com told us the map looked like on October 31st, 2004:

Kerry: 283
Bush: 246
Tied: 9


At the time I thought Kerry had a chance to pull ahead and win. I left L.A. to do GOTV in Nevada, and it wasn't until after knocking on my last door on election day that my bubble was burst. I attended a DNC-funded afterparty at the Rio hotel, and you would have thought it was a funeral.

I was a zombie for the next month.

What happened? How did it go so wrong? Well, electoral-vote.com was being quite generous to Kerry, giving him Florida even though Bush was up in 2 of the 3 most recent Florida polls. Iowa was tied in the polls and he gave it to Kerry. Bush was up in all the Nevada polls, but Electoral-Vote considered it a tie game. Bush was up in the New Mexico polls, but Electoral-Vote gave it to Kerry. Bush won all four of those states, in addition to New Hampshire.

Now, current polling sites give Obama a much, much bigger lead than Kerry had in this compilation. And those Obama leads are generally based on multiple polls where he is leading by more than three or four points. Not to mention, Obama's voters are more enthusiastic and his GOTV operation is unparalleled. But that's not the point. The point is that nothing is done until it is done. Don't trust the polls.

Until I actually see a map filled with blue on election night, until John McCain actually gives a concession speech, this is anyone's game.